Exploratory Scenario Planning for Brazil’s Public Lands

Brazil’s Secretariat for Federal Assets (SPU), an agency within the Ministry of Management and Innovation in Public Services (MIG), is collaborating with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy to apply exploratory scenario planning (XSP) to federal land policy. The work supports the Imóvel da Gente (“Property of the People”) program, which positions federal land as a strategic asset for socio-environmental development.

Attendees will learn how futures thinking can be integrated into national policy frameworks with practical methods for designing participatory scenario planning processes in complex governance settings. The session will present strategies for engaging multiple agencies, fostering collaboration across jurisdictions, and embedding equity goals into long-term planning.

Through the case of Brazil’s first XSP initiative, participants will explore tools for identifying drivers of change, developing plausible future scenarios, and translating scenario outcomes into actionable strategies. These approaches can help planners address uncertainty, adapt to shifting conditions, and create policies that are both resilient and inclusive.

The session emphasizes how collaborative, futures-oriented methods can strengthen institutional capacity, broaden participation, and ensure that land use policies serve diverse community needs. Attendees will leave with transferable strategies to support equitable, future-ready planning in their contexts.